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Kazemi S, Ghamari Fatideh M, Lorestani G. (2026). Predictive Modeling for the Spatial Identification of Paleolithic Sites in the Forested Regions of Western Mazandaran, Northern Iran. JRA. 12(1), : 7 doi:10.66224/jra.2026.12.107
URL: http://jra-tabriziau.ir/article-1-485-en.html

Traditional archaeological surveys in forested landscapes are often limited by cost, time, and poor visibility. This study develops a predictive model to locate Middle Paleolithic sites within the forested regions of western Mazandaran, northern Iran, particularly in Nowshahr and Chalus counties. Using a combination of geological, topographical, hydrological, and environmental variables, the model applies fuzzy logic within ArcGIS 10.8 to determine zones of high archaeological potential. Two previously discovered open-air Paleolithic sites, Bandpey and Mashelak, were selected for calibration. Their environmental characteristics, such as geology, slope, elevation, vegetation, and proximity to water sources, were used as the primary locational indicators. Geological factors, es-pecially the presence of limestone and chert formations within the Tizkuh Formation, emerged as the most influential determinants of settlement distribution, while slope aspect exhibited the least impact. Each environmental layer was normalized on a fuzzy scale (0–1) and combined using the Gamma operator to produce a composite predictive map. The resulting model classified the region into five probability zones, ranging from very low to very high potential. Approximately 10–11% of the study area exhibited strong suitability for Paleolithic habitation, primarily in zones with favorable lithology, moderate slopes, and reliable water access. This research demonstrates that GIS-based fuzzy modeling offers an effective, data-driven approach to archaeological prospection in densely forested environments where field accessibility is limited. The integration of geological, climatic, and topographical data not only enhances the efficiency of archaeological surveys but also provides a methodological framework applicable to similar pre-historic landscapes across northern Iran and beyond.